Why schools probably aren’t COVID hotspots1
Young children are unlikely to spread the virus — but older kids are more at risk, say researchers.
Young children transmit less
“children — especially those under the age of 12–14 — are less susceptible to infection than adults,”
“The potential to transmit increases’ with age, and adolescents are just as likely to transmit the virus as adults”
“Teenagers and teachers should be the focus of mitigation measures, such as wearing masks or a return to online lessons when community transmission is high”
“In the United States, the rate of infection is twice as high in children aged 12–17 years as it is among 5–11-year-olds6”
Kids likely not driving household COVID-19 outbreaks2
Only 4% of household clusters caused by children
“The study authors found only 8 of 213 transmission clusters (3.8%) with a pediatric index case.”
“Children were also less likely than adults to become infected by another member of the household (SAR risk ratio [RR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.91) and were responsible for far fewer secondary cases than adult index cases—only 16 of 398.”
"Children may be less infectious than adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 due to their more mild clinical manifestation of disease," the authors wrote. "However, such a hypothesis requires validation across a larger and more diverse dataset."
Exclusive: Kids catch and spread coronavirus half as much as adults, Iceland study confirms3
“This 40,000-person study found that children under 15 were about half as likely as adults to be infected, and only half as likely as adults to transmit the virus to others. Almost all the coronavirus transmissions to children came from adults.”
“...the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that schools should be both ‘the last settings to close’ and ‘the first to reopen.”
Don’t treat all ages the same
“In addition to the Iceland study, other research has shown that pre-pubescent kids have a significantly lower likelihood of getting sick. So, school officials need to make a distinction between younger children and adolescents.”
"The takeaway is that a critical shift appears somewhere between the ages of 10 and 12. Around the time of puberty, the risk of teenagers both getting and transmitting the virus increases."
"The COVID Monitor, a group tracking information from more than 7,000 U.S. school districts, found that high school case rates are nearly three times that of elementary schools."
Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-24
“Susceptibility to infection (defined as the risk of infection given a contact with primary case) by age: children aged 0-12 years are significantly less susceptible than individuals 26-64 years (odds ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.63)”
“In contrast, we find no statistical support for age difference in infectivity (fig. S3A). These results are in agreement with previous findings (12, 26, 27).”
“As a result, strict physical distancing confines the epidemic mostly to families and households”
References
- Lewis, Dyani. Why Schools Probably Aren't COVID Hotspots. 29 Oct. 2020, www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3.
- Stacy Kuebelbeck Paulsen | News Writer | CIDRAP News | Dec 07, 2020. Kids Likely Not Driving Household COVID-19 Outbreaks. 7 Dec. 2020, www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/kids-likely-not-driving-household-covid-19-outbreaks.
- Morton, Photograph by Rosem, and Photograph by Wang Ying. “Exclusive: Kids Catch and Spread Coronavirus Half as Much as Adults, Iceland Study Confirms.” Science, 12 Dec. 2020, www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/.
- Sun, Kaiyuan, et al. “Transmission Heterogeneities, Kinetics, and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2.” 2020, doi:10.1101/2020.08.09.20171132.